Name: MOdel Validation and Evaluation procedures of integrated planning support systems for Nature-Based Solutions (MOVE-NBS)
Type: Research project
Timeframe: October 2021 – September 2024 (3 years)
Main investigators: Dr. Martijn Kuller (lead, EAWAG), Prof. Peter Vanrolleghem (Université Laval), Dr. Judit Lienert (EAWAG)
Location: Europe, Canada, Australia
Funding agent: European Union (Horizon 2020 Marie Skłodowska Curie Individual Fellowship: Global Fellowship). Grant agreement ID: 101027076
Since 2014, Europe allocated €5.5 billion in sustainable watershed management, including Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) of green-blue infrastructure to combat aquatic ecosystem decline and climate change impacts (e.g. flooding, urban heat). Reliable integrated Planning Support Systems (PSS) are needed for strategic NBS implementation, an EU priority. In past decades, many PSS for NBS have emerged. However, standard validation procedures for PSS lack, which limits PSS credibility, uptake and hampers strategic NBS planning. While diverse model performance criteria and corresponding validation procedures have been proposed, no standard approach has been agreed on. MOVE-NBS responds to this caveat.
MOVE-NBS aims to create such a standard: to build a framework of widely agreed holistic performance criteria and validation procedures for PSS. Our three objectives are: 1) systematically inquiring expert preferences for model performance and validation; 2) empirically testing selected procedures; and 3) building a novel evaluation and validation framework for PSS.
To advance current state-of-the-art, we follow an innovative approach: 1) Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) with leading PSS and NBS experts from science and practice using online preference elicitation; 2) implementing validation procedures in four test cases of real-world NBS planning projects on three continents, using SSANTO and UrbanBEATS; and 3) synthesising findings in an practical and academic validation framework.